Source: The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Predictionby Nate Silver, Penguin Books, 2012, page 376.
Notes: Nate Silver is an American statistician and writer. He analyzed baseball players' performance and careers from 2003 to 2009. He started analyzing U.S. elections in 2008. In 2012, Silver accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, cementing his reputation as one of the top statistical forecasters.
In 2012, he wrote Signal and the Noise to show how we can all learn to detect true signals amid the noise of data. Along with elections, poker, baseball and weather forecasting, Silver devotes a chapter analyzing the science of climate change. His analysis:
"Scientists require a high burden of proof before they are willing to conclude that a hypothesis is incontrovertible. The greenhouse hypothesis has met this standard, which is why the original IPCC (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report singled it out from among hundreds of findings as the only thing that scientists were absolutely certain about."
Silver then writes the above quote how the science behind the greenhouse effect was discovered before the 19th century inventions of light bulb, the telephone and the automobile. Thus, he concludes, "The greenhouse effect is not rocket science."
Silver then writes,
"Indeed, predictions that industrial activity would eventually trigger global warming were made long before the IPCC – as early as 1897 by the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius, and at many other times before the warming signal produced by the greenhouse gas signal had become clear enough to be distinguished from natural causes."
Clearly, Silver informs us that the clear signal of climate change rises above any noise of raw scientific data.
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